Politics and Elections Affect Real Estate
It has been my experience that election year politics will greatly affect the Real Estate industry. I believe that real estate will be very good the third and fourth quarter of 2008. Although the things that determine people’s decision to buy or sell real estate is not directly linked to elections, there are factors that do apply.
The overall economy- people decide to sell their house when they are deciding to move up the food chain. This is affected by their ability to get financing and the ability to receive a fair price for their existing house. If the market is down and they have to sell because of employment then they will be very cautious and may consider alternative such as leasing. They may choose to lease their existing house or they may choose to leased where they are heading.
Financing rates and terms- if the cost of moving affects people by 15% or more then they will not move or if the new employment will not allow then to keep the same discretionary income then they will not move.
The best economy- when the people can refinance and use that cash to pay for the equity for when they are moving. That way they can keep their cash flow as well as create equity in a house.
Based on these items I believe that 2008 will be a very good year but will not materialize until the primary’s are over and the people can determine where the politics will land. It doesn’t matter who will win it will only matter that we know what their overall impact will be.
-Tim Leadbetter
January 4th, 2008 at 11:14 am
I second the motion.
Especially because we move,decide and think in herds.
What better unite the herd than the presidency.
Though I have a bleaker view on 2008.
“Based on these items I believe that 2008 will be a very good year”
Good post Tim.
-Ian
January 9th, 2008 at 12:13 am
I absolutely agree. To paraphrase James Carville: Nothing reassures consumers like other consumers.
Put another way:
The more people that buy a house - the more people that will buy a house.
January 20th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I think Tim’s prediction related to real estate industry for the election year 2008 might hold good as there is no doubt that politics involved in election affects people’s decision to sell their house to a great extent.
http://www.buy-myhouse.co.uk/
February 28th, 2008 at 10:19 am
I am a residential broker in Austin Texas. Last year from November through early February, my experience has been one of a slow, hesitant buyer and a stalwart and somewhat unyielding seller. Those two attitudes have meant a great slowdown in sales with only those needing to buy really driving the market.
In the last month people have been more willing to make their move. I think the upcoming elections have affected folks attitudes on what will happen after November. The impending election of a democrat and strong push by the democrats to balance the budget and end the war have certainly increased the public confidence in my opinion.
As a side note, I read that over 20 republicans in the house/senate have stated that they will not run in the upcoming election. I think that they know that this year’s elections will be strongly slanted to the dems and rather than take a beating, will just retire and become lobbyists!
Joe Cline
Broker, Realtor, CRS, ABR
Austin Realtor | Austin Real Estate | Austin Real Estate Blog
March 15th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
One thing that Politics does is create uncertainty. Uncertainty is often equated with risk, and when things become riskier than people are less likely to make long term investments.